It is for us to ask, Why?
When interest in oil has little to do with petroleum
Why, and why now?
That is the question. In connection with the recent surge in interest by a leading Arab petroleum state to invest in Greece, one wonders about the timing, the motives and the aims.
Given that Greece has had a long history of trade with the Arab Middle East, the sudden interest in pursuing large investments in Greece would seem to be a natural evolution in friendly relations.
Perhaps – if it weren’t for the timing and geopolitical realities. Equally important in this new Middle East bazaar, is what else the Arabs are really bargaining for in addition to investing in Greek energy utilities and in “the search for oil and natural gas on Greek territory.”
Only a simpleton would think that the United Arab Emirates – second only to Saudi Arabia in Middle East oil exports, and third worldwide if you consider frontrunner Russia – suddenly coveted the future promise of Hellenic gas and oil as a marketing tool to expand its market share.
The faith in economic prospects inspired by Israel’s natural gas and oil discoveries in the Levant Basin; the hopes created for Greece, too, when Noble Energy’s drilling platform moved from Israel to Cyprus; and, finally, the strategic needs that forged a vibrant defense alliance among Greece, Cyprus and Israel, all three factors have collectively raised a new geopolitical scenario. One result is the UAE visit to Greece. Undoubtedly, others will follow.
To mimic a Biblical phrase, we now have Faith, Hope and Defense. And the greatest of all is Defense.
That answers the “why” in this novel Arab initiative.
We have lived through more than a half century of “tea and sympathy” relations between Greece and the Arabs -- and figs and feta cheese. It was a period devoid of any practical Arab assistance to Greece in our U.N. dealings with Turkey on behalf of Cyprus. Ditto about Greece’s on-going defense disputes with the Neo-Ottomans, led by Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Davutoglou, over the Aegean sea. We also held in our hearts the 50-year-old self-deceiving myth of Arab petroleum largesse to Greece.
Now comes the Emirates foreign minister, Sheikh Abdulah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan. Accompanying His Excellency is a crowd of managers from entities such as Masdar, an energy friendly city, the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
The Arabs say that their interest is in trade and in gas exploration in Western Greece’s Ionian Sea. Be that as it may, they are gambling on the principle that no modern, sane society would turn its back to the possibility of improved political and economic opportunities.
Which brings us to “why now.”
Consider the following related developments that have probably led the Arabs to conclude that a) Turkey was unable to torpedo the Greece-Israel Alliance, and therefore the time has come to employ other strategies, and b) Greece is now most vulnerable to enticements.
- The summer and fall of 2011 witnessed the collapse of Turkey’s barrage of threats against gas exploration in Eastern Mediterranean and in attempts to sink the Hellenic-Israeli economic and strategic alliance.
- The unsuccessful peace-threatening “flotilla,” aiming to violate the Israeli UN-backed right to boycott Gaza, was halted by Greece. Worse for Turkey, it tarnished its “protector-of-Palestine” caricature despite fierce braggadocio against Israel.
- Cyprus has declared its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where it intends to explore. It has also begun drilling for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean basin in partnership with Israel which intends to protect its interests. Furthermore, international support has come from all quarters including the EU, the U.S. and Russia.
- Not to be minimized is the failure of Turkish diplomacy to bribe the rest of the Balkans to bow to Turkey as their cultural, political and military savior, vis-ά-vis the success of Israel’s low-tone cooperation agreements with Bulgaria and Romania.
- Greece has safeguarded its rights in Kastelorizo, a Greek island in the Eastern Mediterranean since antiquity, and the prospect of an eventual Greek EEZ declaration.
- Turkey has also made wild, unsuccessful claims against Europe’s southernmost point, Gavdos island, in Crete’s Chania administrative district. Here, too, hollow Turkish threats sound like an empty cymbal. When Greece proceeds in Eastern Mediterranean explorations, if it uses a U.S. oil company, no entity would risk war with the 6th Fleet in sight.
Greece’s presently treacherous political environment, though unrelated to the Alliance itself, could be seen by some as an opportunity to be exploited. As we sail into the 2012 winter of Greek discontent, former Prime Minister George Papandreou, an architect and major supporter of the Greece-Israel Alliance, has been marginalized in Greek politics. The appointment of avowed anti-Semites in ministerial posts in the temporary “Greek national unity” government, may have also been taken as a sign of weakness in the Alliance.
But Greek and Israeli Alliance benefits are much more essential and go beyond rough times, especially those that are irrelevant to the Alliance itself.
In addition to Israel’s unique cultural affinity with Greece, there is an array of overarching benefits offered by Israel: High Tech know-how; successful educational and start-up models; symmetrical and asymmetrical war strategies that can help upgrade Greece’s ranking in NATO, and access to advanced defense industries that can help upgrade Greek weapons systems.
Greece and Israel are already engaged in common air force exercises in Greek and Israeli airspace. Recently, Greece secured the unique Israeli Spice 1000 and 2000 weapons systems. And Cyprus has signed its own economic and defense agreements with Israel.
Of course, trade and tourism programs with the Emirates are welcomed by Greece, even as relations with Israel go much deeper and much further. At the same time, we dream that the Emirates may surprise all of us this time around.
Along with the energy discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean that have opened new vistas, the emboldened Emirates may prove that they, too, are envisioning a new, improved world order.
New thinking can lead the Emirates to join Greece and Israel in financing common endeavors. And, who knows? Now that Turkey’s economy is facing its own slow-down, it may be convinced to replace its imperial, grandiose Ottoman schemes with a stake in a peaceful, prosperous Eastern Mediterranean. ###
About the Author
Charles J. Mouratides
Charles J. Mouratides, the executive director of CHI – Circle for Hellas & Israel / International Friends for Greece-Israel Alliance, was born in Thessaloniki, Greece, and lives in Chicago. He served in recent years as the U.S. executive director and communications director of the World Council of Hellenes Abroad, the official Diaspora organization of Greece. For more than 30 years he was an award-winning newspaper reporter and editor, after he served as 2nd Lieutenant in the Greek Army, and received his first degree in American literature, and his graduate degree from Northwestern University’s Medill school of journalism. As head of the editorial department he supervised staff of more than 100 writers and editors for one of the largest chains of community newspapers in the U.S. He has also served as president and officer of Greek American organizations including the Pan-Macedonian Association of America.
During Charles’s many activities and long affiliation with the Jewish communities in the U.S. and in Greece, he was the co-founder of the American Friends of the Jewish Museum of Greece and treasurer of the group at which time he wrote and published a brochure on the museum and the Jewish community.
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