'The Times They Are A-Changing’

Greece, Israel and Cyprus, beware. The Eastern Mediterranean basin is becoming, on its own, a hot spot of major strategic importance to the U.S., the EU and Russia.

The spotlight is finally shifting to the Eastern Mediterranean. The shift is not emerging because the basin is an adjunct to the Middle East and the Balkans, and not because the Black Sea and the Red Sea, with their huge commercial and military traffic, feed into it. Not even because a new $4-billion pipeline pumps Caspian Sea oil from Azerbaijan to the Turkish port Ceyhan.

Similarly, this brand new strategic interest is not developing because the basin is surrounded by the two pillars of Western Civilization, Israel and Greece, and by Muslim powers.  Also, not because its warm waves caress European, Asian and African shores. Not even because it is the birthplace of antiquity’s major religions, lore and mysticism. The Eastern Mediterranean Sea has been all of the above forever.

But today, just like Moses of old raised his staff and parted the waters, and offered salvation to his people fleeing the Pharaoh, the Israelis stuck a drill 16,000 feet into the sandy bottom of Eastern Mediterranean waters, struck natural gas and now raise new hopes for Cyprus, Greece and Europe at large.

New geopolitical target

Most significantly, the discovery of rich oil and gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean is now forcing the urgent re-evaluation of strategic priorities by the world’s mighty.  For Russia, access through Eastern Mediterranean has always been a strategic goal.

But now the stakes are higher and the field more competitive. Israel has already been harvesting from, or is drilling in, several gas fields. Among them are the Tamar and Leviathan fields within its own Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Tamar, drilled to a depth of 16,000 feet, contains an estimated 8.3 trillion c.f. of natural gas.  Leviathan, eventually to be drilled to a depth of 23,000 feet, is believed to be the largest Mediterranean Sea field with about 25 trillion c.f. of gas in addition to undetermined deposits of oil.

It is expected that pipelines through Cyprus and Greece would carry Leviathan’s riches to the rest of Europe. It would be the first non-Russian, non-Asian pipeline to Europe exclusively through EU countries. Working together, Israel and Cyprus are exploring additional fields in the Cypriot EEZ, despite threats from Turkey that it will stop the drilling by force.   

Greece, whose own proposed EEZ borders with Cyprus, is beginning to explore for gas and oil in the same familiar areas, again despite Turkish threats.  Turkey has its own reasons for opposing the Israel-Cyprus-Greece Eastern Mediterranean drillings.

Turkey, thinking it had cornered the pipeline-to-Europe market for good, aims to have 6% of global energy consumption pass through its territory.  All this energy is carried by pipelines and tankers including those passing through Bosporus and the Dardanelles, from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Besides the completed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Turkey seeks a Samsun-Ceyhan gas pipeline, crossing its territory, and connecting under the Black Sea to Russia.

Construction Financing slow

A monumental project signed in 2010 is Nabucco, which would transport gas through Turkey, from Azerbaijan to Austria in a 2,050-mile long, $6-billion pipeline.  Turkey considers Nabucco as another way to push its EU membership. Turkey even expects that construction costs will be paid by the EU, but Prime Minister Erdogan admitted last month that financing for this pipeline has stalled. On the other hand, a pipeline originating in the Eastern Mediterranean basin would likely be less expensive as it slashes the distance considerably, and the pipeline as well as the supply source are within EU borders.

So, Turkey has been surprised by an unexpected Greece-Israel alliance and the likely formation of a Greece-Israel-Cyprus consortium.  To counter Turkish threats, Israel has made it clear that it will not hesitate to use military force to defend its interests. The U.S. has supported the combined drillings and warned Turkey not to interfere. Political support for Greece in its disputes with Turkey -- or anyone else for that matter -- is an entirely novel geopolitical position of the U.S.  It is partially the result of the close relationship that has grown between Israel and Greece. It may also reflect that the drillings are performed by an American petroleum company, Noble Energy of Texas. 

The U.S. certainly considers the consortium favorably, as it is an energy alternative for Europe which is presently dependent on Russian oil.  The expected energy independence of Israel also satisfies U.S.A.’s strategic interests in the Middle East, at a time when Egypt’s new Islamist powers aim to cut off supplies to Israel.  Greece is also presumed to have large deposits of oil and gas in Eastern Mediterranean, including the area south of Crete, and also in the Ionian Sea which abuts Italy.  

      As Bob Dylan, the balladeer, sang, ‘The Times They Are A-Changing…

               The line it is drawn… The curse it is cast… The slow one now… Will later be fast”

EU depends on Russian oil    

Russia has become the world’s largest producer of crude oil, surpassing even Saudi Arabia in 2009, according to the U.S. Energy Department. Most of Russia’s production originates in West Siberia and about 80% of it goes to Western Europe, with Germany and the Netherlands by far the best customers.  Poland, China, France, Italy and the U.S. follow.                                  

PRIMARY OIL & GAS PIPELINES TO EUROPE
SOURCES: U.S. Department of Energy; Heritage Foundation
 

Russia may soon increase production through its East Siberian deposits which are undoubtedly also very rich. A maze of tanker ports and pipelines -- some through Turkey but most through the former Soviet republics – transport or distribute oil and gas from Russia to Europe and beyond.  Some oil also originates in Asia’s “stan” regions, including the Caspian Sea fields which are under the direct control of Russia, of former Soviet republics, and Iran.  Azerbaijan’s capital Baku has been a major production center since the early 1900s. But regardless of where in the ex-Soviet republics the Caspian Sea oil is drilled, it takes Russian pipelines to get it to Europe.

Gas and oil production in the Eastern Mediterranean -- from Cypriot and Greek sources with the help of Israel -- for the first time would bring to Europe energy from EU countries with deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean.  This helps ease the stranglehold of Russia and re-enforces the strategic importance of the Eastern Mediterranean basin.

Greece must grasp the times

Two recent seemingly routine actions underscore the new strategic interest in the area. In recent months, as Greece was negotiating a financial bailout from the EU and the IMF, Russia offered to become an alternate financial sponsor of Greece.  Greece did not accept.

The second instance occurred when Greece’s new Prime Minister, Lukas Papademos, visited Western Europe to negotiate the Greek public debt in early December. It was not a coincidence that at the same time, Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon was arriving in Athens to discuss oil production and distribution with the Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Dimitri Dollis. The obvious message was to shift focus to the Israel-Greece-Cyprus energy prospects.

Cyprus is already easing into a full cooperation mode with Israel, even as it accepted a loan of 2.5 billion Euros from Russia to meet 2012 financial needs.  Noble Energy, which is exploring for gas, recently estimated gas deposits in an Eastern Cyprus field to be 5 to 8 trillion c. ft. That would cover Cypriot needs for more than 200 years.  

But Greece still needs to find its bearings. It is already in a defense agreement with Israel that allows the air force of the two countries to use each other’s airspace for combined training. Greece demonstrated its initial political commitment to Israel when it halted the “flotilla” attempting to challenge the Israeli embargo of Gaza.  And the two countries are probably now reviewing defense plans and proposals to kick-start trade/business projects.

Allowing Israel to base some of its air force on Greek soil would give Israel the possibility to operate securely in the Middle East from a western position, not simply from its own bases in Israel.

However, Greece has still not even declared its own Exclusive Economic Zone in the Mediterranean.  Worse, it is still uncertain in its dealings with the U.S., despite that the hour is ripe for Greece to shed any hesitation and to dive into the changing times and opportunities. Is it that difficult to understand where Greek interests rest?

Now is the time for Greece to move into a different relationship with the U.S. and may even be able to draw U.S. support and settle favorably some vexing issues such as Greece’s relationship with FYROM.

We should keep in mind that the U.S. is reported to have given in to FYROM on the name “Macedonia” in order to secure a U.S. military base in FYROM. A simplistic trade-off.  There was no historic or diplomatic conviction involved.  Sabotage and attacks against intelligence facilities in Albania threatened logistical support to U.S. forces in Kosovo. The insecurity of American intelligence facilities in Albania, the narco-trafficking, and crime linked to global terrorism and the Iranian-linked infrastructure of the region, led the U.S. to seek a safer base in FYROM.  Characteristic of the Bush era, the decision displayed ignorance of history and lack of understanding. Political expediency is catastrophic all around if ignorance accompanies it.    

Now is the time for Greece to begin playing its own game, in a new field.  Negotiating access and contracts to oil and gas in the Eastern Mediterranean may prove to be equally valuable for Greece and the West.  In a new ripple, Greece may provide a cover for Israel because Greeks can access the large oil companies – Exxon, Shell, BP – which are reluctant to explore and drill on behalf of Israel for fear of being blacklisted by the Arab states. 

Along the same lines, Turkey’s consistent slide over the past 10 years towards Islamist-based, “imperial” style politics and alliances in the Middle East, and several Turkish anti-American actions on serious issues, create unique opportunities for a flexible Greece and Cyprus. Turkey is simply not a dependable ally for the U.S.  On the other hand, Israel, America’s unquestionable ally in the Middle East, must be able to depend on Greece and Cyprus. Similarly, the latter two should expect multifaceted cooperation from Israel.

As time passes, Greece risks failing to act decisively because of antiquated political thinking and the present financial crisis. New thinking is necessary.

In the new thinking, priority is shifted away from dwelling in relationships with Eastern Mediterranean countries, even if we could tell where these countries are headed following the recent civil wars. New thinking focuses on, and follows, the dawning of the era of Eastern Mediterranean oil and natural gas. It would be tragic if a slow-moving Greece becomes a country that “never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity,” paralyzed, as in the eloquently coined phrase by the late Israeli statesman Abba Eban.  

Looking in today’s Eastern Mediterranean we are challenged to grasp what is happening, and we celebrate it in the lyrics of Dylan’s anthem of the beat generation:

         “ … As the present now… Will later be past… The order… is Rapidly fadin'…
            And the first one now… Will later be last…  For the times they are a-changin' .   

CHI-CIRCLE FOR HELLAS & ISRAEL /International Friends for Greece-Israel Alliance, is a non-profit organization, registered in the State of Illinois, whose mission is to encourage and help secure the long-term creative viability of the historic alliance between Israel and Hellas, and between Hellenism and Judaism in the Balkans, in Eastern Mediterranean and in the Diaspora.  CHI aims to accomplish its mission through cultural, educational and business programs with an emphasis on people-to-people contacts.  We invite you to read about us at www.chicircle.org , and we ask for your support as best as you can.